Tata Motors Ltd’s September quarter performance was a huge disappointment even with the low expectation from the market. After the results were announced, leading brokerage firms have cut price targets for Tata Motors.
On the
domestic front, commercial vehicle market (medium and heavy) is still subdued. A year or so back Tata Motors had poached Mayank
Pareek from Maruti in the hopes of reviving the passenger vehicle business and
regain market share, this too has not gone as anticipated.
While
passenger vehicle sales rose 8.5% year-over-year in the April-October period in
India, commercial vehicle sales increased 8%. Although Tata registered an impressive 14%
sales growth for its passenger vehicle portfolio in the seven month period,
this growth is still less than anticipated.
Much was
expected from the launch of the Genx Nano, Zest, and Bolt models. Following the launch of the sub 4-meter
compact sedan, Zest in August of last year, the automaker’s monthly car sales
in the country rose (year on year) after many consecutive months of decline.
After
more than a year after launch, Zest is selling one-tenth the volume of its
chief competitor, Swift Dzire.
Tata Zica,
which is scheduled a January 2016 launch, will come with two engine options – a
1.05-litre 3-cylinder diesel and a 1.2-litre petrol engine. While the former is
an all-new unit, the latter is the same that powers the petrol versions of the
Bolt and Zest. The pricing is expected
to be Rs 3 lakh – Rs 4 lakh (the buzz being 3.6 lakh).
Rising
disposable incomes and low fuel cost and the upcoming 7th pay commission bonanza
are supporting growth in the passenger vehicle segment in the country, Tata
Motor with its poor quality products (passenger car segment) is not expected to catch much of the action even
with its HorizonNext products.
Tata
Motor’s passenger car sales are still far behind the market leader Maruti and
even with the new launches (Tata Motors plan to launch 3-4 new car every year),
new marketing campaign, new brand ambassador (only time will tell if a football
superstar can pull customers in non-football countries like China and India) Tata
Motors still has poor perception in the customer’s mind (truck like comfort in
cars!!).
In fact Goldman
Sachs has downgraded Tata Motors to sell from neutral as it believes the stock
has priced in better H2FY16 volume growth and margin after H1FY16 slump.
Tata
Motors has rallied 16 percent in past three months against a 10 percent fall in
the BSE Sensex. Goldman Sachs believes
the stock is going to face headwinds of China’s moderation of growth and volume
shift to lower-margin Jaguar brand. The brokerage
has slashed 12-month target price to Rs 363 from 369 and cut FY16-18 earnings
per share estimate further by 21-26 percent driven by JLR margin weakness and elevated depreciation
& amortisation charges.
Tata
Motors posted a loss of Rs 430 crore in Q2FY16 against profit of Rs 3,290.8
crore in year-ago period (impacted by Tianjin Port explosion).
JLR's
operating profit dropped 36.9 percent to 589 million pound in September quarter
compared to 933 million pound in same quarter previous year.
"Further,
cyclical upturn in the India business remains sub-optimal with upcycle FY18 RoE
(return on equity) of 11 percent even as we build-in in revival in the
commercial vehicle (CV) market share," it says.
Moreover,
the recent Volkswagen ‘Dieselgate’ may also weigh on JLR’s regulatory capex,
Goldman feels.
The
management in the conference call said that margin erosion was due to temporary
challenges—adverse regional mix and product mix, along with high product launch
costs, marketing spending and unfavorable forex revaluations.
Although developed countries like the UK and the US are
showing higher sales growth, these are not sufficient to offset the fall in
China’s sales. While production in China
through JLR’s local joint venture to cater to its domestic market is a positive
as it will bring down the prices and help compete against other luxury brands. This coupled with lower commodity prices might
offset the lower sales in China if the company can achieve higher volume sales.
I expect little or no upside from this level (short
term) and see the stock hovering around Rs 345-360 in the near term. My view on Tata Motors remains reduce. As for long term investing, I see better
rates to start taking an investment call as there is a strong possibility of falling in a value trap at the current price level.
DISCLAIMER:
These are my views and I can change them at any time. I plan to go short on Tata Motors at around Rs 428/- 432/- range but can
change my view and even go long at any point of time. Consult your advisor before going short on
Tata Motors.
5 comments:
Well written report with in-depth information.
An useful post for the money market
Yes I completely agree with you that Tata Motor is not good at this price even for long term investors. Even Tata group does not have trust on Tata Motors stock performing otherwise why would Tata Steel sell 1.33% in September at 324 per share.
Loved the "truck like comfort in cars!!" so true
If anyone had heeded to my advice and shorted Tata Motors in the range of 428-432, please put the stop loss now at 415.2 (CMP 409.5 date December 3, time 9:22 a.m.) and keep adjusting downwards as the stock falls. Aggressive traders can put the SL at selling price (minus brokerage) and ride the trade for maximization of profit.
Trade squared off at 363.90 (December 14, 2015) 9:25 a.m.
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